International Financial Adjustment

44 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2005 Last revised: 26 Jun 2010

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; University of California, Berkeley - Economic Analysis & Policy Group; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Hélène Rey

London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2005

Abstract

The paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country's net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio (hitherto unexplored financial adjustment channel). Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 31% of the external adjustment. Our theory also has asset pricing implications. Deviations from trend of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predict net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation decrease of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter.

Suggested Citation

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Rey, Helene, International Financial Adjustment (February 2005). NBER Working Paper No. w11155. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=669454

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email )

549 Evans Hall #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/pgourinchas

University of California, Berkeley - Economic Analysis & Policy Group ( email )

Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/pgourinchas

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.nber.org/people/pierre-olivier_gourinchas

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/authorlist.php?ident=136737

Helene Rey

London Business School ( email )

Sussex Place
Regent's Park
London, London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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