Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big is the Problem?

Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2005-3

51 Pages Posted: 22 Feb 2005

See all articles by Michael R. King

Michael R. King

Gustavson School Of Business

Maksym Padalko

Bank of Canada

Date Written: February 2005

Abstract

This paper studies the price-volume dynamics ahead of the first public announcement of a takeover for 420 Canadian firms from 1985 to 2002. Pre-bid price run-ups in the target firm's shares may be caused by some combination of information leakage due to illegal insider trading or market anticipation based on rumours in the press. We review empirical studies of illegal insider trading and trading ahead of unscheduled announcements to generate predictions for abnormal returns and abnormal volume ahead of the takeover announcement. We observe serially correlated volume and a pattern of return reversals in our sample. Pre-bid run-ups occur shortly before the actual announcement, accompanied by significantly positive abnormal returns and share volume. Targets' stock prices react significantly to the actual announcement, with both positive and negative reactions. These price-volume dynamics are more consistent with the predictions of the market anticipation hypothesis than the illegal insider trading hypothesis.

Keywords: illegal insider trading, takeovers, event study, abnormal volume, strategic trading model, competitive trading model

JEL Classification: G14, G18, G34

Suggested Citation

King, Michael Robert and Padalko, Maksym, Pre-Bid Run-Ups Ahead of Canadian Takeovers: How Big is the Problem? (February 2005). Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2005-3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=670321 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.670321

Michael Robert King (Contact Author)

Gustavson School Of Business ( email )

University of Victoria
Business & Economics Building, Room 246
Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2
Canada
250-721-6425 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.uvic.ca/gustavson/faculty/faculty/faculty/current/kingm.php

Maksym Padalko

Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ottawa K1A 0G9
Canada

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