Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?

Posted: 19 Mar 2005

See all articles by Ralitsa Petkova

Ralitsa Petkova

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Banking & Finance

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Abstract

The Fama-French factors HML and SMB are correlated with innovations in variables that describe investment opportunities. A model that includes shocks to the aggregate dividend yield and term spread, default spread, and one-month Treasury-bill yield explains the cross-section of average returns better than the Fama-French model. When loadings on the innovations in the predictive variables are present in the model, loadings on HML and SMB lose their explanatory power for the cross-section of returns. The results are consistent with an ICAPM explanation for the empirical success of the Fama-French portfolios.

JEL Classification: G12

Suggested Citation

Petkova, Ralitsa, Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?. Journal of Finance, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=677404

Ralitsa Petkova (Contact Author)

Case Western Reserve University - Department of Banking & Finance ( email )

10900 Euclid Ave.
Cleveland, OH 44106-7235
United States

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