China's Emergence in East Asia Under Alternative Trading Arrangements

49 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2005

See all articles by Hiro Lee

Hiro Lee

Osaka University; Osaka University - Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP)

David Roland-Holst

University of California, Berkeley

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

World Bank

Abstract

China's accelerated global emergence has changed trade patterns in the Asia-Pacific region and exerted important influence on its trilateral relationship with Japan and the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the effects of multilateral and regional trade policy scenarios that are particularly relevant to China, Japan, and the United States using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results suggest that the three countries would gain substantially from a trilateral free trade agreement and could realize large fractions of the residual gains from global trade liberalization. We contrast this with prospective free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia, and we find that these FTAs largely benefit smaller member economies (e.g., ASEAN countries).

Keywords: FTA, China, East Asia, Trilateralism, CGE model

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Lee, Hiro and Roland-Holst, David and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, China's Emergence in East Asia Under Alternative Trading Arrangements. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=685107

Hiro Lee (Contact Author)

Osaka University ( email )

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Osaka University - Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) ( email )

David Roland-Holst

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe

World Bank ( email )

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Washington, DC 20433
United States
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202-522-1159 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dvandermensbrugghe