Bayesian Clustering of Many GARCH Models

CORE Discussion Paper No. 2003/87

42 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2005

See all articles by Luc Bauwens

Luc Bauwens

Université catholique de Louvain

J. V. K. Rombouts

HEC Montreal; Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) - Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE); Centre interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques et l'emploi (CIRPÉE); Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organization (CIRANO)

Date Written: November 28, 2003

Abstract

We consider the estimation of a large number of GARCH models, of the order of several hundreds. To achieve parsimony, we classify the series in a small number of groups. Within a cluster, the series share the same model and the same parameters. Each cluster contains therefore similar series. We do not know a priori which series belongs to which cluster. The model is a finite mixture of distributions, where the component weights are unknown parameters and each component distribution has its own conditional mean and variance. Inference is done by the Bayesian approach, using data augmentation techniques. Illustrations are provided.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Clustering, GARCH, Gibbs sampling, Mixtures

JEL Classification: C11, C32

Suggested Citation

Bauwens, Luc and Rombouts, Jeroen, Bayesian Clustering of Many GARCH Models (November 28, 2003). CORE Discussion Paper No. 2003/87, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=691887 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.691887

Luc Bauwens (Contact Author)

Université catholique de Louvain ( email )

CORE
34 Voie du Roman Pays
B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, b-1348
Belgium
32 10 474321 (Phone)
32 10 474301 (Fax)

Jeroen Rombouts

HEC Montreal ( email )

3000, Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine
Montreal, Quebec H3T 2A7
Canada

Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) - Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) ( email )

34 Voie du Roman Pays
B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, b-1348
Belgium

Centre interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques et l'emploi (CIRPÉE) ( email )

Pavillon De Sève
Ste-Foy, Quebec G1K 7P4
Canada

Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organization (CIRANO) ( email )

2020 rue University, 25th floor
Montreal H3C 3J7, Quebec
Canada

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