Commonality in the Determinants of Expected Stock Returns
Posted: 22 Aug 1998
Evidence is presented that the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns are stable in their identity and influence from period to period and from country to country. The determinants are related to risk, liquidity, price-level, growth potential, and stock price history. Out-of-sample predictions of expected return, using trailing moving average values for the payoffs to these firm characteristics, are strongly and consistently accurate. Moreover, the stocks with higher expected and realized return rates of return are generally and unambiguously of lower risk than stocks with lower returns. Given the nature of the tests, it is highly unlikely that these results may be attributed to bias or data snooping. Consequently, the results seem to reveal a major failure in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.
JEL Classification: G19
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation