Business Cycles and Natural Gas Prices

17 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2005

See all articles by Apostolos Serletis

Apostolos Serletis

University of Calgary - Department of Economics

Asghar Shahmoradi

University of Calgary - Department of Economics; International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Abstract

This paper investigates the basic stylised facts of natural gas price movements using data for the period that natural gas has been traded on an organised exchange and the methodology suggested by Kydland and Prescott (1990). Our results indicate that natural gas prices are procyclical and lag the cycle of industrial production. Moreover, natural gas prices are positively contemporaneously correlated with United States consumer prices and lead the cycle of consumer prices, raising the possibility that natural gas prices might be a useful guide for US monetary policy, like crude oil prices are, possibly serving as an important indicator variable.

Suggested Citation

Serletis, Apostolos and Shahmoradi, Asghar, Business Cycles and Natural Gas Prices. OPEC Review, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 75-84, March 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=695529

Apostolos Serletis (Contact Author)

University of Calgary - Department of Economics ( email )

2500 University Drive, NW
Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4
Canada
403 220-4091 (Phone)
403 282-5262 (Fax)

Asghar Shahmoradi

University of Calgary - Department of Economics ( email )

2500 University Drive, NW
Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4
Canada

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
28
Abstract Views
1,564
PlumX Metrics