Global Growth Centres 2020

Abstract

Substantiated, long-run growth forecasts are in the limelight following the New Economy disappointments and repeated crises in the emerging markets. With the help of "Formel-G", we identify the sources of long-term economic growth and generate forecasts for 34 economies until 2020. India, Malaysia and China will post the highest GDP growth rates over 2006-20 according to Formel-G. Strong population growth, a rapid improvement in human capital and increasing trade with other countries allow average GDP growth of more than 5% per year. Ireland, the USA and Spain are the OECD economies expected to grow most quickly.

Keywords: growth, forecasting

JEL Classification: O, F, C23