Dealing with Data Uncertainty

7 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2005


True values of key macroeconomic variables are unobservable and can only be estimated. A key question for the Monetary Policy Committee is how best to take account of the resultant uncertainty in its economic assessment. Official estimates of economic variables are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and some private sector organisations publish surveys of business activity that may also give clues as to the underlying state of the economy. This article presents a simple methodology for deriving 'best guesses' of the true values of economic variables by weighting together official estimates and information from business surveys.

Suggested Citation

Ashley, James and Driver, Ronnie and Hayes, Simon and Jeffery, Christopher, Dealing with Data Uncertainty. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Spring 2005, Available at SSRN:

James Ashley


Ronnie Driver


Simon Hayes (Contact Author)

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Christopher Jeffery


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