Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas

Abstract

The paper analyzes the relationship between trade, financial integration and business cycle synchronization in the euro area. The introduction of the euro has had a noticeable impact on European financial markets: we find evidence that capital markets integration exerts a positive effect on output correlation. This in turn has two major implications. First, it corroborates the hypothesis of the endogeneity of optimum currency areas, whereby after joining a monetary union countries fit better standard OCA criteria; second, it provides European policymakers with yet another reason to purse financial integration in the euro area (and in prospective members as well).

Keywords: OCA, EMU, financial integration, GDP correlation

JEL Classification: F15, F36