Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-95

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 5, pp. 723-745, October 2004

Posted: 15 Jun 2005

See all articles by Will H. Moore

Will H. Moore

Florida State University - Department of Political Science

Steve Shellman

College of William and Mary - Department of Government; University of Georgia - School of Public and International Affairs

Abstract

Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, we contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives, physical person, and liberty. The greater the threat posed by the behavior of the government and dissidents, the larger the number of forced migrants a country will produce. To test hypotheses drawn from our argument we use a global sample of countries over more than forty years. Our findings are consistent with our argument, and we are able to show that violent behavior has a substantially larger impact on forced migration than variables such as the type of political institutions or the average size of the economy.

Keywords: Forced Migration, Refugees, Internally Displaced Persons

JEL Classification: F22, D74, H57

Suggested Citation

Moore, Will H. and Shellman, Steve, Fear of Persecution: Forced Migration, 1952-95. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 5, pp. 723-745, October 2004, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=707761

Will H. Moore (Contact Author)

Florida State University - Department of Political Science ( email )

Talahasse, FL 30306
United States
850-644-6924 (Phone)

Steve Shellman

College of William and Mary - Department of Government ( email )

Government Dept, College of William & Mary
Post Office Box 8795
Williamsburg, VA 23186
United States

University of Georgia - School of Public and International Affairs ( email )

Athens, GA 30602-6254
United States

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