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The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate

20 Pages Posted: 2 May 2005 Last revised: 24 Dec 2007

See all articles by Tara M. Sinclair

Tara M. Sinclair

George Washington University - Department of Economics; George Washington University - Elliott School of International Affairs (ESIA); George Washington University - Institute For International Economic Policy (GWIIEP); George Washington University - Research Program on Forecasting; George Washington University - George Washington Institute of Public Policy (GWIPP); Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA); Halle Institute for Economic Research

Date Written: December 17, 2007

Abstract

This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate are important for explaining overall fluctuations. Further, the correlation between changes in these series arises in large part due to the relationship between their permanent components.

Keywords: Unobserved Components, Business Cycle, Trend GDP, Cyclical Unemployment, Natural Rate of Unemployment

JEL Classification: C32, E23, E24, E32

Suggested Citation

Sinclair, Tara M., The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate (December 17, 2007). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=709185 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.709185

Tara M. Sinclair (Contact Author)

George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

2115 G Street NW
Monroe Hall Suite 340
Washington, DC 20052
United States
202-944-7988 (Phone)
202-994-6147 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc/

George Washington University - Elliott School of International Affairs (ESIA) ( email )

2201 G Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20052
United States
202-994-7988 (Phone)
202-994-6147 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://home.gwu.edu/~tsinc/

George Washington University - Institute For International Economic Policy (GWIIEP) ( email )

1957 E Street, N.W.
Suite 502
Washington, DC 20052
United States

George Washington University - Research Program on Forecasting ( email )

1922 F Street, NW
Old Main, Suite 208
Washington, DC 20052
United States

George Washington University - George Washington Institute of Public Policy (GWIPP) ( email )


United States

Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) ( email )

ANU College of Business and Economics
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Halle Institute for Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 11 03 61
Kleine Maerkerstrasse 8
D-06017 Halle, 06108
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.dpe-halle.de/asp/person.asp?xtr&Lang=e

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