The Unreliability of Inflation Indicators

6 Pages Posted: 4 May 2005

See all articles by Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Stephen G. Cecchetti

Brandeis International Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Rita Chu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator - an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.

Keywords: inflation, indicators, forecasting

JEL Classification: E31, E37

Suggested Citation

Steindel, Charles and Cecchetti, Stephen G. and Chu, Rita, The Unreliability of Inflation Indicators. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Vol. 6, No. 4, April 2000. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=716681

Charles Steindel (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

Stephen G. Cecchetti

Brandeis International Business School ( email )

415 South Street
Waltham, MA 02453
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
212-720-8629 (Phone)
212-720-2630 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Rita Chu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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