The Unreliability of Inflation Indicators

6 Pages Posted: 4 May 2005

See all articles by Charles Steindel

Charles Steindel

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Stephen G. Cecchetti

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Brandeis International Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Rita Chu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator - an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.

Keywords: inflation, indicators, forecasting

JEL Classification: E31, E37

Suggested Citation

Steindel, Charles and Cecchetti, Stephen G. and Cecchetti, Stephen G. and Chu, Rita, The Unreliability of Inflation Indicators. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=716681

Charles Steindel (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

Stephen G. Cecchetti

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
212-720-8629 (Phone)
212-720-2630 (Fax)

Brandeis International Business School ( email )

415 South Street
Waltham, MA 02453
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Rita Chu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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