The Unreliability of Inflation Indicators
6 Pages Posted: 4 May 2005
Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator - an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.
Keywords: inflation, indicators, forecasting
JEL Classification: E31, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation