Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change

33 Pages Posted: 13 May 2005

See all articles by Harald Hau

Harald Hau

University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI); Swiss Finance Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Massimo Massa

INSEAD - Finance

Joel Peress

INSEAD - Finance

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2005

Abstract

Do exchange rates react to exogenous capital movements? We explore this issue based on the redefinition of the MSCI international equity indices announced on 10 December 2000 and implemented in two steps on 30 November 2001 and 31 May 2002. The index changes implied major changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI world index. Our event study shows a strong announcement effect in which countries with a decreasing equity representation vis-a-vis the US depreciated against the dollar. Around the two implementation dates, we find further systematic, but opposite, exchange rate effects, which can be interpreted as a result of excessive speculation on the first implementation date and insufficient speculation on the second date.

Keywords: Event study, exchange rates, global equity index funds, limits of arbitrage

JEL Classification: F31, G12, G24

Suggested Citation

Hau, Harald and Massa, Massimo and Peress, Joel, Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change (January 2005). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4862. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=722427

Harald Hau (Contact Author)

University of Geneva - Geneva Finance Research Institute (GFRI) ( email )

40 Boulevard du Pont d'Arve
Geneva 4, 1211
Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute

Switzerland

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Massimo Massa

INSEAD - Finance ( email )

Boulevard de Constance
F-77305 Fontainebleau Cedex
France
+33 1 6072 4481 (Phone)
+33 1 6072 4045 (Fax)

Joel Peress

INSEAD - Finance ( email )

Boulevard de Constance
F-77305 Fontainebleau Cedex
France
+33 1 60 72 40 00 (Phone)
+33 1 60 72 40 45 (Fax)

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