Assessing the Impact of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Airline Demand

Brown University Economics Working Paper No. 2003-16

24 Pages Posted: 18 May 2005

See all articles by Harumi Ito

Harumi Ito

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Darin Lee

Compass Lexecon; Law and Economics Consulting Group (LECG), LLC

Date Written: February 3, 2004

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the September 11th terrorist attacks and its after-effects on U.S. airline demand. Using monthly time-series data from 1986-2003, we find that September 11th resulted in both a negative transitory shock of over 30% and an ongoing negative demand shock amounting to roughly 7.4% of pre-September 11th demand. This ongoing demand shock has yet to dissipate (as of November 2003) and cannot be explained by economic, seasonal, or other factors.

Keywords: Airlines, Structural Change, Attenuating Shock, September 11

JEL Classification: R41, L16, L93

Suggested Citation

Ito, Harumi and Lee, Darin N., Assessing the Impact of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Airline Demand (February 3, 2004). Brown University Economics Working Paper No. 2003-16. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=722491 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.722491

Harumi Ito (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Darin N. Lee

Compass Lexecon ( email )

United States

Law and Economics Consulting Group (LECG), LLC ( email )

350 Massachusetts Avenue, Suite 300
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States

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