Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

13 Pages Posted: 12 May 2005  

Nazli Choucri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Political Science

Stuart Madnick

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Michael Siegel

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Date Written: February 2005

Abstract

In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: We learned that the institutions charted with protecting . . . national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties better preparedness can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction - and hence create new threats to the nation's security.

We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions. We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will deliver a detailed country model, including 3-5 futures predictions in the 6-12 month range along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options.

Keywords: system dynamics, state stability

Suggested Citation

Choucri, Nazli and Madnick, Stuart and Siegel, Michael, Research Initiative to Understand & Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics (February 2005). MIT Sloan Working Paper No. 4539-05; CISL Working Paper No. 2005-02. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=722603 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.722603

Nazli Choucri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Political Science ( email )

77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States

Stuart E. Madnick (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

E53-321
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-6671 (Phone)
617-253-3321 (Fax)

Michael Siegel

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

E53-323
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-2937 (Phone)
617-258-7579 (Fax)

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