Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation

40 Pages Posted: 25 May 2005

See all articles by Renata Bottazzi

Renata Bottazzi

Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF

Mario Padula

University "Ca' Foscari" of Venice; CSEF

Date Written: January 2005

Abstract

We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households' expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of Italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. Two parameters are crucial to estimate pension wealth: the age at which workers expect to retire and the expected ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits these expectations during a period of intense pension reforms between 1989 and 2002. These reforms had different consequences for different cohorts and employment groups, providing a quasi-experimental framework to study the effect of social security arrangements on expectations of retirement outcomes and household saving decisions. Our main findings are that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth.

Keywords: Expectations, pension reform

JEL Classification: E21, H55

Suggested Citation

Bottazzi, Renata and Jappelli, Tullio and Padula, Mario, Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation (January 2005). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4882. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=729069

Renata Bottazzi

Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) ( email )

7 Ridgmount Street
London, WC1E 7AE
United Kingdom
+44 20 7291 4800 (Phone)
+44 20 7323 3780 (Fax)

Tullio Jappelli (Contact Author)

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.cepr.org/researchers/details/rschcontact.asp?IDENT=106354

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o ECARES ULB CP 114
B-1050 Brussels
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://www.ecgi.org

Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF

84084 Fisciano, Salerno
Italy
+39 089 963 165 (Phone)
+39 089 963 169 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Mario Padula

University "Ca' Foscari" of Venice ( email )

Dorsoduro 3246
Venice, Veneto 30123
Italy
+390412349181 (Phone)
+390412349176 (Fax)

CSEF

Via Don Melillo I
Fisciano, Salerno, 84084
Italy

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