A Methodology for Evaluating Production in Football: An Armchair Quarterback's Rating System
13 Pages Posted: 14 Jun 2005
Date Written: June 13, 2005
This paper posits a model of production in football. Applying this model to basic offensive and defensive statistics from regular season National Football League games, one is able to accurately explain variation in points scored, points allowed, and win percentage. One can apply individual player statistics for quarterbacks and running backs to the model parameters to calculate the marginal contribution of specific players to their teams. Therefore, this methodology is not only attractive because it is grounded in statistical analysis, but it also offers a uniform system to compare the production of different players at different positions - properties that the current NFL rating system does not contain. The most obvious use of this model would be to apply it to quarterback and running back salaries to determine if the market for those players is reasonably efficient.
Keywords: Marginal production, analysis of sports, quarterback rating
JEL Classification: D4, L11, L83
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