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A Methodology for Evaluating Production in Football: An Armchair Quarterback's Rating System

Allan T. Ingraham

Economists Incorporated; affiliation not provided to SSRN

June 13, 2005

This paper posits a model of production in football. Applying this model to basic offensive and defensive statistics from regular season National Football League games, one is able to accurately explain variation in points scored, points allowed, and win percentage. One can apply individual player statistics for quarterbacks and running backs to the model parameters to calculate the marginal contribution of specific players to their teams. Therefore, this methodology is not only attractive because it is grounded in statistical analysis, but it also offers a uniform system to compare the production of different players at different positions - properties that the current NFL rating system does not contain. The most obvious use of this model would be to apply it to quarterback and running back salaries to determine if the market for those players is reasonably efficient.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 13

Keywords: Marginal production, analysis of sports, quarterback rating

JEL Classification: D4, L11, L83

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Date posted: June 14, 2005  

Suggested Citation

Ingraham, Allan T., A Methodology for Evaluating Production in Football: An Armchair Quarterback's Rating System (June 13, 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=742725 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.742725

Contact Information

Allan T. Ingraham (Contact Author)
Economists Incorporated ( email )
2121 K St NW
Suite 1100
Washington, DC 20037
United States
202-747-3540 (Phone)
HOME PAGE: http://www.naviganteconomics.com
affiliation not provided to SSRN
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