Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets

53 Pages Posted: 6 Jul 2005 Last revised: 19 Sep 2012

See all articles by Geert Bekaert

Geert Bekaert

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics

Campbell R. Harvey

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Christian T. Lundblad

University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler Business School

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2005

Abstract

Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that our liquidity measures significantly predict future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not eliminated its impact.

Suggested Citation

Bekaert, Geert and Harvey, Campbell R. and Lundblad, Christian T., Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets (June 2005). NBER Working Paper No. w11413. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=745806

Geert Bekaert (Contact Author)

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

3022 Broadway
New York, NY 10027
United States

Campbell R. Harvey

Duke University - Fuqua School of Business ( email )

Box 90120
Durham, NC 27708-0120
United States
919-660-7768 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.duke.edu/~charvey

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Christian T. Lundblad

University of North Carolina Kenan-Flagler Business School ( email )

Kenan-Flagler Business School
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3490
United States
919-962-8441 (Phone)

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