The Acceding Countries' Strategies Towards Erm Ii and the Adoption of the Euro: An Analytical Review

67 Pages Posted: 23 Aug 2005

See all articles by Peter Backé

Peter Backé

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations

Christian Thimann

AXA Group

Olga Arratibel

European Central Bank (ECB)

Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez

European Central Bank (ECB)

Arnaud Mehl

European Central Bank (ECB)

Carolin Nerlich

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics

Date Written: February 2004

Abstract

This paper reviews the strategies announced by the ten countries joining the European Union in May 2004 with regard to their intentions for participation in ERM II and the adoption of the euro. The paper examines the economic rationale of the monetary integration strategies declared by most acceding countries with a view to identifying also their potential risks. It does so by making use of several different approaches, including a short review of nominal convergence and a more extensive discussion from an optimum currency area perspective. An important part of the analysis is devoted to the implications of real convergence - i.e. catching-up growth in income and adjustment of the real economic structures towards those prevailing in the euro area - on the patterns of economic dynamics in acceding countries. Other aspects covered are the risks for external competitiveness in the convergence process and the appropriate pace of fiscal consolidation.

Suggested Citation

Backé, Peter and Thimann, Christian and Arratibel, Olga and Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar and Mehl, Arnaud and Nerlich, Carolin, The Acceding Countries' Strategies Towards Erm Ii and the Adoption of the Euro: An Analytical Review (February 2004). ECB Occasional Paper No. 10. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=748973

Peter Backé (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General International and European Relations ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Christian Thimann

AXA Group ( email )

25 avenue Matignon
Paris, 75008
France

Olga Arratibel

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Eurotower
Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
0049 69 13440 (Phone)
0044 69 1344 6000 (Fax)

Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Arnaud Mehl

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Carolin Nerlich

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

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