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Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German Eurobonds

16 Pages Posted: 9 Jul 2005  

Niklas Wagner

Passau University

Warren P. Hogan

University of Technology, Sydney - School of Finance and Economics

Jonathan A. Batten

Monash University

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Abstract

We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment-grade Deutschemark-denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994-1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two-factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity, indicate strong persistence in spread changes. Consistent with theory and previous findings, changes in spreads are significantly negatively related to the term-structure level while, contrary to theory, the proxy for asset value does not yield a significant negative contribution. We even find a significant positive relation for Eurobonds with long maturity. Tentative interpretations are portfolio-rebalancing activities or differing risk factor sensitivities on short vs. long-maturity bonds.

Suggested Citation

Wagner, Niklas and Hogan, Warren P. and Batten, Jonathan A., Interest Rates, Stock Returns and Credit Spreads: Evidence from German Eurobonds. Economic Notes, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 35-50, February 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=758041

Niklas F. Wagner (Contact Author)

Passau University ( email )

Innstrasse 27
Passau, 94030
Germany

Warren P. Hogan

University of Technology, Sydney - School of Finance and Economics ( email )

Haymarket
Sydney, NSW 2007
Australia
+61 2 9514 7730 (Phone)
+61 2 9514 7711 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://datasearch.uts.edu.au/business/finance/staff/StaffDetails.cfm?UnitStaffId=91

Jonathan A. Batten

Monash University ( email )

Melbourne
Australia

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