Security of Energy Supply: Comparing Scenarios from a European Perspective

32 Pages Posted: 28 Jul 2005

See all articles by Giorgio Vicini

Giorgio Vicini

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Francesco Gracceva

ENEA, Centro della Casaccia; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Anil Markandya

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3); University of Bath

Valeria Costantini

University of Rome III - Department of Economics

Date Written: June 2005

Abstract

This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyze projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level.

Keywords: Energy security, Energy scenarios, Oil and natural gas markets

JEL Classification: Q40, Q41, Q48

Suggested Citation

Vicini, Giorgio and Gracceva, Francesco and Markandya, Anil and Costantini, Valeria, Security of Energy Supply: Comparing Scenarios from a European Perspective (June 2005). FEEM Working Paper No. 89.05, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=758225 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.758225

Giorgio Vicini (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy
+39 0252036955 (Phone)

Francesco Gracceva

ENEA, Centro della Casaccia ( email )

via Anguillarese 301
S. Maria di Galeria
Roma, 00060
Italy
+390630481 (Phone)
+39063048 4203 (Fax)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy
+390252036934 (Phone)

Anil Markandya

Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)

Gran Vía 35-2
Bilbao, Vizcaya 48009
Spain

University of Bath ( email )

Claverton Down
Bath, BA2 7AY
United Kingdom

Valeria Costantini

University of Rome III - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Silvio D'Amico, 77
00145 Rome, 00145
Italy
+39 06 5711 4723 (Phone)

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
465
Abstract Views
3,065
rank
66,948
PlumX Metrics