Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data

21 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2005

See all articles by James Mitchell

James Mitchell

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Richard J. Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics; National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Martin R. Weale

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Abstract

Traditionally forecasts of macroeconomic aggregates are extracted from prospective qualitative survey data by relating official data on the aggregate to both the proportion of survey respondents who are 'optimists' and the proportion who are 'pessimists'. But there is no reason to focus on these proportions to the exclusion of other possible means of aggregating and quantifying the underlying panel of respondent or firm-level survey responses. Accordingly in this paper we show how the panel of firm-level responses underlying these proportions can be exploited to derive forecasts of (aggregate) manufacturing output growth that do not lose information that may be contained in the pattern of individual responses. An application using firm-level prospective survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the forecasts of manufacturing output growth derived using these 'disaggregate' methods mark an improvement over the so-called 'aggregate' methods based on use of the proportions data alone.

Suggested Citation

Mitchell, James and Smith, Richard J. and Weale, Martin R., Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data. Manchester School, Vol. 73, No. 4, pp. 479-499, July 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=758573

James Mitchell (Contact Author)

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ( email )

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

Richard J. Smith

University of Warwick - Department of Economics ( email )

Coventry CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
+44 0 24 7652 3468 (Phone)
+44 0 24 7652 3032 (Fax)

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

Martin R. Weale

National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) ( email )

2 Dean Trench Street
Smith Square
London SW1P 3HE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/

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