Does Falling Smoking Lead to Rising Obesity?

30 Pages Posted: 18 Aug 2005 Last revised: 19 May 2022

See all articles by Jonathan Gruber

Jonathan Gruber

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Michael Frakes

Duke University School of Law

Date Written: July 2005

Abstract

The strong negative correlation over time between smoking rates and obesity have led some to suggest that reduced smoking is increasing weight gain in the U.S.. This conclusion is supported by the findings of Chou et al. (2004), who conclude that higher cigarette prices lead to increased body weight. We investigate this issue and find no evidence that reduced smoking leads to weight gain. Using the cigarette tax rather than the cigarette price and controlling for non-linear time effects, we find a negative effect of cigarette taxes on body weight, implying that reduced smoking leads to lower body weights. Yet our results, as well as Chou et al., imply implausibly large effects of smoking on body weight. Thus, we cannot confirm that falling smoking leads in a major way to rising obesity rates in the U.S.

Suggested Citation

Gruber, Jonathan and Frakes, Michael, Does Falling Smoking Lead to Rising Obesity? (July 2005). NBER Working Paper No. w11483, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=760176

Jonathan Gruber (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Michael Frakes

Duke University School of Law ( email )

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