What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

109 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2005 Last revised: 28 Jan 2011

See all articles by Morris Goldstein

Morris Goldstein

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Date Written: July 1, 2005

Abstract

This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.

Keywords: emerging markets, financial crisis, China slowdown, US current account

JEL Classification: F41, F34, F31, F37

Suggested Citation

Goldstein, Morris, What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like? (July 1, 2005). Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 05-7. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=771045 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.771045

Morris Goldstein (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1903
United States

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