Bayesian Estimation of Cox Models with Non-Nested Random Effects: An Application to the Ratification of Ilo Conventions by Developing Countries

26 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2005 Last revised: 20 Aug 2008

See all articles by Guillaume Horny

Guillaume Horny

Banque de France

Bernhard Boockmann

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research; Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Dragana Djurdjevic

University of St. Gallen

Francois Laisney

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

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Abstract

We use a multivariate hazard model for the analysis of data on the timing of ratifications of different ILO conventions by developing countries. The model accounts for two random effects, one at the country level and the other at the convention level. After investigating identification, we use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on the partial likelihood for the inference. Our findings confirm the results of preceding studies that ratification depends both on economic and political factors. Furthermore, the rusults yield insights on the impact of unobserved heterogeneity across member states and conventions on the ratification process.

Keywords: Gibbs sampling, partial likelihood, frailties, duration analysis

JEL Classification: C11, C14, C15, D78, J80, O19

Suggested Citation

Horny, Guillaume and Boockmann, Bernhard and Djurdjevic, Dragana and Laisney, Francois, Bayesian Estimation of Cox Models with Non-Nested Random Effects: An Application to the Ratification of Ilo Conventions by Developing Countries. ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper No. 05-023. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=771949 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.771949

Guillaume Horny (Contact Author)

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Bernhard Boockmann

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1 D-68161 Mannheim
Germany
+621 1235 156 (Phone)
+621 1235 225 (Fax)

Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) ( email )

Ob dem Himmelreich 1
Tubingen, 72074
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iaw.edu

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Dragana Djurdjevic

University of St. Gallen ( email )

Varnbuelstr. 14
Saint Gallen, St. Gallen CH-9000
Switzerland

Francois Laisney

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

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