A Generalized Earnings-Based Stock Valuation Model

31 Pages Posted: 28 Aug 2005

See all articles by Ming Dong

Ming Dong

York University - Schulich School of Business

David A. Hirshleifer

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business; NBER

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Abstract

This paper provides a model for valuing stocks that takes into account the stochastic processes for earnings and interest rates. Our analysis differs from past research of this type in being applicable to stocks that have a positive probability of zero or negative earnings. By avoiding the singularity at the zero point, our earnings-based pricing model achieves improved pricing performance. The out-of-sample pricing performance of the generalized earnings valuation model (GEVM) and the Bakshi and Chen pricing model are compared on four stocks and two indices. The generalized model has smaller pricing errors and greater parameter stability. Furthermore, deviations between market and model prices tend to be mean-reverting using the GEVM model, suggesting that the model may be able to identify stock market misvaluation.

JEL Classification: G12, G14, M41

Suggested Citation

Dong, Ming and Hirshleifer, David A., A Generalized Earnings-Based Stock Valuation Model. Manchester School, Vol. 73, No. S1, pp. 1-31, September 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=777817

Ming Dong (Contact Author)

York University - Schulich School of Business ( email )

4700 Keele Street
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3
Canada
416-736-2100 ext. 77945 (Phone)
416-736-5687 (Fax)

David A. Hirshleifer

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business ( email )

Irvine, CA California 92697-3125
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.uci.edu/dhirshle/

NBER ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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