Local Functional Exponential Smoothing

35 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2005

See all articles by Dimitrios D. Thomakos

Dimitrios D. Thomakos

University of Peloponnese - School of Management, Economics and Informatics; University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA)

Date Written: June 3, 2005

Abstract

A generalization of the exponential smoothing (ES) model is proposed by making two new assumptions about the form that the ES forecast function takes. First, the smoothing coefficient is made a function of (possibly a lag of) the observed time series and, second, the one-step ahead forecast is allowed to be a weighted average of the last forecast and an unknown function of the last observation. These assumptions greatly enhance the usefulness and applicability of ES as a filtering and forecasting method, as they permit data-dependent updating of the smoothing coefficient and can handle nonlinearity. Neither of these features is available in the context of the standard ES model. The inference problem is nonparametric and the approximation parameters of the model are estimated by local nonlinear least squares. A model selection procedure, based on generalized cross-validation, is also given. The potential of the new model is illustrated using four real economic time series.

Keywords: Exponential smoothing, forecasting, nonlinear, nonparametric

Suggested Citation

Thomakos, Dimitrios D., Local Functional Exponential Smoothing (June 3, 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=781486 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.781486

Dimitrios D. Thomakos (Contact Author)

University of Peloponnese - School of Management, Economics and Informatics ( email )

Department of Economics
22100 Tripolis
Greece
+30 2710 230139 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://es.uop.gr/

University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis (RCEA)

Via Patara, 3
Rimini (RN), RN 47900
Italy

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