Back to the Future? Assessing the Deflation Record
61 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2007
Date Written: March 2004
Abstract
The rhetoric of deflation has become more prevalent in policy circles and in the press despite the fact that deflation has been a rare phenomenon in modern fiat currency economies. To better understand the nature of deflation, this paper looks back to a period when deflation was a regular feature of the economic environment, across both time and a wide set of countries. One feature of the deflation record stands clear. During the 19th century and early 20th century, deflation was not generally associated with persistent and deep economic malaise. Most periods of deflation also appear to have been largely unanticipated, with interest rates rarely approaching their zero lower bound. One notable exception to this typical pattern was the Great Depression of the early 1930s, the event that nowadays colours current general perceptions of what deflationary episodes might look like. At the risk of oversimplification, one way to think about this broad sweep of history is that deflations come in three basic types: the good, the bad and the ugly. The paper then jumps forward in time, seeking to draw lessons from the past about the possibility of future episodes of deflation and their characteristics. In doing so, it pays particular attention to the similarities and differences in the monetary and financial regimes prevailing now and in the past. While great care should be taken in any such exercise, the paper concludes that certain features of the past can help to shed some light on the policy challenges that policymakers might face in the future.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility
By Ben S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler
-
Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus
-
Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy
By Michael D. Bordo and Olivier Jeanne
-
Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy
By Michael D. Bordo and Olivier Jeanne
-
Whither Monetary and Financial Stability? The Implications of Evolving Policy Regimes
-
U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy
-
Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008
By Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor
-
Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008
By Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor
-
Securing Sustainable Price Stability: Should Credit Come Back from the Wilderness?