Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis

37 Pages Posted: 2 Oct 2005

See all articles by Jan-Egbert Sturm

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Helge Berger

Free University Berlin - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business; De Nederlandsche Bank; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Abstract

This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 118 countries over the period 1971-2000. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that it is mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits.

Suggested Citation

Sturm, Jan-Egbert and Berger, Helge and de Haan, Jakob, Which Variables Explain Decisions on IMF Credit? An Extreme Bounds Analysis. Economics & Politics, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 177-213, July 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=791839

Jan-Egbert Sturm (Contact Author)

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich ( email )

Zurich
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.kof.ethz.ch

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo.de

Helge Berger

Free University Berlin - Department of Economics ( email )

Boltzmannstr. 20
Berlin 14195, 14195
Germany
+49 30 838-54037 (Phone)
+49 30 838-52782 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/berger/eng_index.htm

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
+49 89 9224 1266 (Phone)
+49 89 9224 1409 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

PO Box 800
Groningen, 9700 AV
Netherlands
+31 0 50 3633706 (Fax)

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

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