Can Low Income Countries Afford Basic Social Protection? First Results of a Modelling Exercise

Abstract

This report presents the methodology and the results of a modelling exercise that demonstrates that basic social protection benefits are not out of reach for low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, even though some international assistance would be necessary for a transitory period. The Social Protection Sector of the International Labour Organization (ILO) has estimated the cost of basic social protection benefits education, health, pensions) for a selected number of developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, namely Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Senegal and Tanzania. The selection of countries aimed to provide regional diversity within Africa but was nevertheless largely driven by data availability.

A preliminary version of the result tables and assumptions were set-up by the Social Protection Sector of the ILO and then discussed with DFID (United Kingdom Department for International Development). Following that DFID provided comments and suggested modifications to some of the assumptions. These are included in the Base Case (Scenario I). The main aim of this paper is to provide a costing of a basic social protection benefit package with the description and sources of the data and assumptions used for the projections as well as a brief description of the methodology used.

Keywords: Africa South of Sahara, poverty alleviation, social security, economic model