The Rise of China: Prospects of Regional Trade Policy
29 Pages Posted: 29 Sep 2005
Date Written: February 2005
China now engages in multilateral trade liberalization as a new member of the WTO. Concurrently, the number of regional trade agreements is increasing worldwide. China and its trading partners would benefit from increased regional liberalization. Using a gravity equation for 23 Asia-Pacific countries between 1992 and 2000, we show that ASEAN and APEC currently have small effects on Asia-Pacific exports, which are mainly influenced by growth, trade barriers and common language. However, we find that China's participation in regional agreements has large export potentials, not only with respect to ASEAN, but also in a broad agreement including South- and East-Asian countries.
Keywords: China, Economic Integration, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, Gravity Model
JEL Classification: F15, F17
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