The Real Term Structure and Consumption Growth
32 Pages Posted: 8 Oct 2005
One version of the consumption-based asset pricing model implies a linear relation between expected returns and expected consumption growth. This paper provides evidence that the expected real term structure contains information that can be used to forecast consumption growth. The evidence is strongest for the 1970's and 1980's. The real term structure contains more information than two alternative measures: lagged consumption growth and lagged stock returns. Further, the real term structure appears to have slightly more forecasting power than the leading commercial econometric models. This is the working paper version of my 1988 Journal of Financial Economics article.
Keywords: Term structure, yield curve, forecasting economic growth, predicting consumption growth
JEL Classification: G10, G12, E32, E43, F43
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation