Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

45 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2005

See all articles by Pierre-Richard Agenor

Pierre-Richard Agenor

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences

Nihal Bayraktar

Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration; World Bank

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

World Bank

Karim El Aynaoui

World Bank

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2005

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of our approach is a macro model that captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health), the supply side, and poverty. The model is linked through cross-section regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy, and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in aid and a debt write-off for Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block of Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current "Poverty Reduction" Strategy Papers.

Suggested Citation

Agenor, Pierre-Richard and Bayraktar, Nihal and Moreira, Emmanuel Pinto and El Aynaoui, Karim, Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework (October 2005). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3750. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=825987 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.825987

Pierre-Richard Agenor (Contact Author)

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

Nihal Bayraktar

Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration ( email )

777 West Harrisburg Pike
Middletown, PA 17057-4898
United States
+1 717 948 6142 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.personal.psu.edu/nxb23/

World Bank

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Emmanuel Pinto Moreira

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Karim El Aynaoui

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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