Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
FRB of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2005-17
13 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2005
Date Written: October 2005
We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model parameters. We find that versions of the Taylor rule calibrated to perform well under rational expectations with perfect knowledge perform very poorly when agents are learning and the central bank faces uncertainty regarding natural rates. In contrast, difference rules, in which the change in the interest rate is determined by the inflation rate and the change in the unemployment rate, perform well when knowledge is both perfect and imperfect.
Keywords: Natural rate of interest, natural rate of unemployment, rational expectations, learning, monetary policy rules, Taylor rule
JEL Classification: E52
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation