Political Cycles in US Industry Returns
37 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2005
Date Written: November 30, 2005
After correcting industry returns for general market movements and known risk factors, using either the Single-Index or the Fama-French three factor models, we find no evidence of two well known political effects documented for general stock market returns in the United States. Contrary to the general market, adjusted industry returns do not show a significant or consistent underperformance under Republican presidents. Contrary to general market indices, adjusted industry returns do not exhibit significant or a consistent presidential election cycle effect. Our results defy popular belief that some industries perform consistently better under either Democrats or Republicans, and suggest these two political effects are market wide phenomena whose explanation should be sought at a macro economic level.
Keywords: efficient markets, industry returns, political cycles
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