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Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) Using Tick-by-Tick Data with Application to the Toronto Stock Exchange

39 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2005  

Georges Dionne

HEC Montreal - Department of Finance

Pierre Duchesne

University of Montreal - Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Maria Pacurar

Dalhousie University - Rowe School of Business

Date Written: December 13, 2005

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the use of tick-by-tick data for market risk measurement. We propose an Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) at different horizons based on irregularly time-spaced high-frequency data by using an intraday Monte Carlo simulation. An UHF-GARCH model extending the framework of Engle (2000) is used to specify the joint density of the marked-point process of durations and high-frequency returns. We apply our methodology to transaction data for the Royal Bank and the Placer Dome stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Results show that our approach constitutes reliable means of measuring intraday risk for traders who are very active on the market. The UHF-GARCH model performs well out-of-sample for almost all the time horizons and the confidence levels considered even when normality is assumed for the distribution of the error term, provided that intraday seasonality has been accounted for prior to the estimation.

Keywords: Value at Risk, tick-by-tick data, UHF-GARCH models, intraday market risk, high-frequency models, intraday Monte Carlo simulation, Intraday Value at Risk

JEL Classification: C22, C41, C53, G15

Suggested Citation

Dionne, Georges and Duchesne, Pierre and Pacurar, Maria, Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) Using Tick-by-Tick Data with Application to the Toronto Stock Exchange (December 13, 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=868594 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.868594

Georges Dionne

HEC Montreal - Department of Finance ( email )

3000 Chemin de la Cote-Sainte-Catherine
Montreal, Quebec H3T 2A7
Canada
514-340-6596 (Phone)
514-340-5019 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.hec.ca/gestiondesrisques/

Pierre Duchesne

University of Montreal - Department of Mathematics and Statistics ( email )

Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7
Canada

Maria Pacurar (Contact Author)

Dalhousie University - Rowe School of Business ( email )

6100 University Avenue
Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2
Canada

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