Growth Trends in the Developing World: Country Forecasts and Determinants

62 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2005

Date Written: November 2005

Abstract

The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively.

Suggested Citation

Ianchovichina, Elena and Kacker, Pooja, Growth Trends in the Developing World: Country Forecasts and Determinants (November 2005). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3775. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=871233

Elena Ianchovichina (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-458-8910 (Phone)
202-522-1159 (Fax)

Pooja Kacker

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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