Revenue Forecasting - How is it Done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries

23 Pages Posted: 10 Jan 2006

See all articles by Annette J. Kyobe

Annette J. Kyobe

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Stephan Danninger

International Monetary Fund (Research Department)

Date Written: February 2005

Abstract

This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.

Keywords: Revenue Forecasting, Budget Preparation

JEL Classification: H20

Suggested Citation

Kyobe, Annette J. and Danninger, Stephan, Revenue Forecasting - How is it Done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries (February 2005). IMF Working Paper No. 05/24, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=874245

Annette J. Kyobe (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Stephan Danninger

International Monetary Fund (Research Department) ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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