CISL Working Paper No. 2006-02
13 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2006
Date Written: January 2006
The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of 'loads' generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its 'capacity' to withstand these 'loads', on the other. The problem is to determine and 'predict' when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for 'tipping points', namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of 'tipping' and enhance prospects for stability.
Keywords: national security, state stability, system dynamics
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Choucri, Nazli and Electris, Christi and Goldsmith, Daniel and Mistree, Dinsha and Morrison, J. Bradley and Siegel, Michael and Sweitzer-Hamilton, Margaret, Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics (January 2006). MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4574-06; CISL Working Paper No. 2006-02. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=876962 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.876962