Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade

30 Pages Posted: 8 May 2006

See all articles by Tibor Besedes

Tibor Besedes

Georgia Institute of Technology

Thomas J. Prusa

Rutgers University

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We employ survival analysis to study the duration of U.S. imports. Our findings indicate international trade is far more dynamic than previously thought. The median duration of exporting a product to the U.S. is very short, on the order of two to four years. There is negative duration dependence. If a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will likely export the product for a long period of time. The results hold across countries and industries and are robust to aggregation.

Suggested Citation

Besedes, Tibor and Prusa, Thomas J., Ins, Outs, and the Duration of Trade. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 266-295, February 2006, Available at SSRN: or

Tibor Besedes (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology ( email )

221 Bobby Dodd Way
Atlanta, GA 30332-0615
United States

Thomas J. Prusa

Rutgers University ( email )

Dept of Economics
75 Hamilton St
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
United States
848-932-8646 (Phone)
732-932-7416 (Fax)

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