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The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?

3 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2006 Last revised: 30 Dec 2011

Kesten C. Green

University of South Australia - UniSA Business School; Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract

Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong answer this question by describing experiments they conducted, asking experts as well as university students to make predictions based on some similar situations, using structured analogies and simulated interaction. They were amazed by some of the results.

Keywords: Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Suggested Citation

Green, Kesten C. and Armstrong, J. Scott, The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?. International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 2, pp. 50-52, October 2005. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=877485

Kesten C. Green (Contact Author)

University of South Australia - UniSA Business School ( email )

GPO Box 2471
Adelaide, SA 5001
Australia
+61 8 83012 9097 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://people.unisa.edu.au/Kesten.Green

Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science ( email )

Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.marketingscience.info/people/KestenGreen.html

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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