Download This PaperThe War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
3 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2006 Last revised: 30 Dec 2011
Abstract
Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong answer this question by describing experiments they conducted, asking experts as well as university students to make predictions based on some similar situations, using structured analogies and simulated interaction. They were amazed by some of the results.
Keywords: Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction
JEL Classification: COO, C2
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )
700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm
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