The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
3 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2006 Last revised: 30 Dec 2011
Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong answer this question by describing experiments they conducted, asking experts as well as university students to make predictions based on some similar situations, using structured analogies and simulated interaction. They were amazed by some of the results.
Keywords: Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction
JEL Classification: COO, C2
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation