Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status

43 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006

See all articles by Bogdan Lissovolik

Bogdan Lissovolik

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department

Yaroslav Lissovolik

SberCIB Investment Research

Date Written: August 2004

Abstract

With China`s accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization`s most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia`s export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model`s predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia`s exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia`s further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO`s overall role in promoting trade.

Keywords: WTO, gravity model, Russia, trade

JEL Classification: F14, F18

Suggested Citation

Lissovolik, Bogdan and Lissovolik, Yaroslav, Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status (August 2004). IMF Working Paper No. 04/159, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=878984

Bogdan Lissovolik (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Yaroslav Lissovolik

SberCIB Investment Research ( email )

Moscow
Russia

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