Comparing Projections and Outcomes of Imf-Supported Programs

35 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2006

See all articles by Alberto Musso

Alberto Musso

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Steven Phillips

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Western Hemisphere Department

Date Written: April 2001

Abstract

Program numbers from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

Keywords: IMF, programs, projections, forecasts

JEL Classification: C5, E3, D8, G2, L2

Suggested Citation

Musso, Alberto and Phillips, Steven, Comparing Projections and Outcomes of Imf-Supported Programs (April 2001). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879435 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.879435

Alberto Musso

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Steven Phillips (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Western Hemisphere Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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