A Systemic Assessment of MDG Achievement: The Case of Guatemala

81 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2006

See all articles by Juan F. Castro

Juan F. Castro

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics

Arlette Beltran

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics

Enrique Vasquez

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics; Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internacionals - IBEI

Gustavo Yamada

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics

Date Written: Januaty 30, 2006

Abstract

We propose a systemic approach to MDG assessment, which aims at exploiting the existence of interrelations and sinergies among indicators via the integration of a macro scenarios model and a set of probabilistic microeconometric models. Given this integrated system and an explicit loss function for the policymaker, it is possible to identify the most cost-effective combination of policy interventions aimed at simultaneously achieving all targets. We apply this model using survey data from Guatemala. Evidence suggests that under an optimistic GDP growth scenario, the annual cost of the specific policy interventions required to reach the targets would represent 0.6% of GDP. To estimate the potential bias that would be introduced if this same analysis is conducted on a sectorial basis and in the absence of policy coordination, we also simulate our model after shutting off all links between MDG indicators. Under this scenario, total budgetary needs would be more than 28% larger.

Keywords: Millennium Development Goals, Guatemala

JEL Classification: I12, I18, I21, I28, I32, I38, C25, C41, C61

Suggested Citation

Castro, Juan Francisco and Beltran, Arlette and Vasquez, Enrique and Yamada, Gustavo, A Systemic Assessment of MDG Achievement: The Case of Guatemala (Januaty 30, 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879805 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.879805

Juan Francisco Castro (Contact Author)

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics ( email )

Av. Salaverry 2020
Lima
Peru

Arlette Beltran

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics ( email )

Av. Salaverry 2020
Región Metropolitana
Lima 18, Santiago Lima 11
Peru

Enrique Vasquez

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics ( email )

Av. Salaverry 2020
Jr. Sanchez Cerro 2050
Lima, Lima Lima 11
Peru
+5112190100 (Phone)

Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internacionals - IBEI ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, Barcelona 08005
Spain

Gustavo Yamada

Universidad del Pacifico, Peru - Department of Economics ( email )

Av. Salaverry 2020
Región Metropolitana
Lima 18, Santiago Lima 11
Peru

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