Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress

38 Pages Posted: 14 Feb 2006

See all articles by Graciela Kaminsky

Graciela Kaminsky

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); George Washington University - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 1999

Abstract

The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.

Keywords: Early Warnings, Currency Crises, Banking Crises

JEL Classification: F300, F410, F470

Suggested Citation

Kaminsky, Graciela, Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress (December 1999). IMF Working Paper, Vol. , pp. 1-38, 1999. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=880833

Graciela Kaminsky (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

Monroe Hall
2115 G Street, NW
Washington, DC 20052
United States
202-994-6686 (Phone)
202-994-6147 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.gracielakaminsky.com/

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
225
Abstract Views
986
rank
11,258
PlumX Metrics