Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy
An Empirical Exploration

38 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006  

M. Ayhan Kose

Development Prospects Group at the World Bank

Eswar S. Prasad

Cornell University - Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management; Cornell University - Department of Economics; Brookings Institution; NBER; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Marco E. Terrones

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: December 2003

Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.

Keywords: Business cycles macroeconomic fluctuations volatility correlations globalization

JEL Classification: F2 F41 F42 E32

Suggested Citation

Kose, M. Ayhan and Prasad, Eswar S. and Terrones, Marco E., Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy An Empirical Exploration (December 2003). IMF Working Paper, Vol. , pp. 1-38, 2003. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=880956

M. Ayhan Kose (Contact Author)

Development Prospects Group at the World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Eswar S. Prasad

Cornell University - Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management ( email )

440 Warren Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States

HOME PAGE: http://prasad.aem.cornell.edu

Cornell University - Department of Economics ( email )

414 Uris Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853-7601
United States

Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

NBER ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Marco E. Terrones

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-4329 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://imf.org/external/np/CV/AuthorCV.aspx?AuthID=171

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