Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?

49 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006

See all articles by Alexander W. Hoffmaister

Alexander W. Hoffmaister

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Jorge E. Roldos

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: January 1997

Abstract

This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.

JEL Classification: C32, E32, F41

Suggested Citation

Hoffmaister, Alexander W. and Roldos, Jorge E., Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? (January 1997). IMF Working Paper No. 97/9, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=882225

Alexander W. Hoffmaister (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Jorge E. Roldos

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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