Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects

30 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006

See all articles by Günther Taube

Günther Taube

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics; CEPR

Date Written: September 1998

Abstract

What explains Uzbekistan`s unusually mild "transformational recession" and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of "special factors"including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policiesand sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan`s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan`s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.

Keywords: Uzbekistan, Transition, Growth, Output, Sustainability

JEL Classification: P24, P27, P52, O47, O53

Suggested Citation

Taube, Günther and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects (September 1998). IMF Working Paper, Vol. , pp. 1-30, 1998. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=882688

Günther Taube (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

CEPR ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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