Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
30 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Date Written: September 1998
What explains Uzbekistan`s unusually mild "transformational recession" and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of "special factors"including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policiesand sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan`s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan`s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Keywords: Uzbekistan, Transition, Growth, Output, Sustainability
JEL Classification: P24, P27, P52, O47, O53
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