The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
36 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Date Written: September 1998
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan`s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country`s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan`s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan`s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.
Keywords: Uzbekistan, Transition, Growth, Output, Public Investment, Cotton, Energy
JEL Classification: P24, P27, P52, O53
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